What Kind of Bull Market Is This Anyway?

It's getting to be that time of year. The time when investors start peering into their crystal balls in order to try and ascertain what might be in store for the next year.

While making predictions about what the stock market might or might not do over a twelve month period tends to be a fool's errand and it is never a good idea to invest according to such predictions, it does make sense to occasionally take stock of the current cycle from a big-picture standpoint.

With the major indices all sitting at or near all-time highs, it is safe to say that stocks are in at least some kind of a bull market. The chart below showing the S&P 500 on a monthly basis since 1989 makes this point pretty clear. Remember, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably...

S&P 500 - Monthly Closes

Not exactly ground-breaking analysis, right? However, the key question at this stage of the game is whether or not stocks are enjoying a "secular" bull market (one that lasts at least ten years - think 1982 to 2000) or a more run-of-the-mill "cyclical" bull?

The answer to this question is important if one's crystal ball is to be useful at all in terms of next year's predictions.

However, the problem is that it is difficult to know the answer to this question for certain without a heaping helping of hindsight. Currently, there are a handful of indications that the indices have indeed embarked on a new secular bull run. And if this turns out to be the case, then the game is likely to be very enjoyable for at least another five to ten years.

But, since one can't know for sure about such things, it is probably a good idea to focus on the question of whether the current joyride to the upside has been one long bull market that began in March 2009 or two bull markets separated by the big dive in the late-summer of 2011.

The question of the day is illustrated on the chart below:

S&P 500 - Weekly Closes

Some analysts argue that stocks have been in a bull market since March 9, 2009. This scenario is represented by the green trend line on the chart above.

Under this scenario, the S&P has gained approximately 165.5 percent over the past 1,733 days. Not bad, eh?

Other analysts argue that the 19 percent decline seen in the summer of 2011 qualified as a bear market. Thus, the current bull run is only 760 days old and sports a gain of 61.2 percent.

Why Does This Matter?

While such a distinction may seem trivial, from an historical perspective it is kinda important.

You see, since 1900, the average "cyclical" bull market (defined by Ned Davis Research as a gain of at least 30 percent in the Dow Jones Industrial average after 50 calendar days or a gain of at least 13 percent over 155 calendar days) has, on average, produced gains of 85.9 percent over 752 days.

So... those who argue that the bull began back on March 9, 2009 need to admit that the current gain of 165 percent over the past 1733 da