Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Newmont Mining & Barrick Gold: How Dead is Dead?

A deal between Barrick Gold (ABX)and Newmont Mining (NEM) might make sense, but it ain’t gonna happen as long as Barrick’s co-chairman keeps insulting Newmont in the press.

Bloomberg

That was the gist of a letter sent by Newmont Mining to Barrick Gold’s board, ending the talks between the two gold mining giants.

While our team has found your management team's engagement to be constructive and professional, the same constructive nature cannot be said of our discussions with your Co-Chairman on certain fundamental strategic and structural issues over the past two weeks. Our efforts to find consensus have been rejected out of hand repeatedly. And, as we contemplated further dialogue, we read in the continuing reporting of the transaction in the financial press a pointed characterization of our company as "extremely bureaucratic and not shareholder-friendly." Nothing could be further from the truth. Moreover, none of this suggests that we have the mutual respect or shared values today that we believe are necessary for the enterprise that would result from the combination of our companies to realize its full potential.

It is, in fact, because of our deep commitment to our shareholders that we reluctantly have had to unanimously conclude that we need to put aside our attempts to resuscitate this initiative and should pursue our course as an independent company.

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Sterne Agee’s Michael S. Dudas and Satyadeep Jain wonder if a deal is really dead:

We believe Barrick drove too much control while Nemwont’s Nevada asset base would likely provide more synergistic value. In releasing a letter notifying Barrick, Newmont’s Board highlighted displeasure with Barrick’s methods, especially in the press. We believe door remains slightly ajar for some sort of transaction, but requires a reset, in our view.

Shares of Newmont Mining have dropped 6.4% to $24.76 at 2:25 p.m., while Barrick Gold has fallen 3.4% to $17.28, both worse than the 2.3% decline in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF’s (GDX) 2.3% drop.

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Quit Your Job To Trade Stocks?

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Trading is often viewed as a high barrier-to-entry field, but this is simply not the case in today's market. Now, anyone with ambition and patience can trade, and do it for a living, even with little to no money. Sound fantastic? It is, and there are so many options available to people with the desire to put in the time to learn.

The New Era of Trading
Changes in technology and increasing volumes on the exchanges have brought about a number of very low barriers-to-entry trading-careers. In some cases no personal capital is required, and in other cases a small amount of capital will be required to get you started, in order to verify your commitment to trading. With markets so interlinked, it's always open trading time somewhere on the globe, and many of those markets can be accessed with relative ease. This means that even people who have full-time jobs or children at home can trade - it is just a matter of finding the right market and the right opportunity.

This is not to say that trading is an easy business - it can be very tough to stay in for the long haul. As we look at some different trading alternatives available in today's market, you will see that you are able to enter the market, but your ultimate success depends on you. We will look at these options in depth to see what they offer career wise, or if they can simply be used to generate additional income.

The Options Available
People often think that full-time traders only work for investment banks, with advanced degrees and a high pedigree. Equally as common is the thought that, in order to trade for one's self, large amounts of capital and expendable time are needed.

It is probably true that, to get into an investment bank or onto a major institutional trading floor, you will need to have connections or a prominent educational background that sets you apart. Therefore, this alternative will not be focused on. In this article we will focus on how the average person, with extensive or very little trading experience, can enter into the arena of trading and creating wealth.

Trade Independently
The first option, and likely the easiest because it is so flexible and can be molded around a person's current life, is trading from home. However, day trading from home is also one of the most capital-intensive arenas. This is because the SEC will freeze, for 90 days, any day trading account that does not maintain a minimum of $25,000. Putting aside this much money is not a realistic option for many people.

Therefore, potential traders need to be aware of the other markets that require less capital and have lower barriers to entry. The foreign exchange (forex) or currency markets offer such an alternative. Accounts can be opened for as little as $100 and, with leverage, a large amount of capital can be controlled with this small amount of money. This market is open 24 hours a day during the week, and thus provides an alternative to those who cannot trade during regular market hours.

The contract for difference (CFD) market has also expanded. A CFD is an electronic agreement between two parties that involves no ownership of the underlying asset. This allows for gains to be captured for a fraction of the cost of taking ownership of the asset. As with the forex market, the CFD market provides high leverage, meaning smaller amounts of capital are needed to enter the market. The stock market can also be traded using a CFD. While the stock is never owned, the contract allows profits/losses to be reaped from speculating on the underlying stocks or indexes by mirroring its movement.

High leverage does mean higher risk, but if a trader does not have a large amount of capital, this market can still be entered with very low barriers. Educating oneself on the risks involved and building a strong trading plan are absolute musts before partaking in any trading activity, but when you're highly leveraged, it becomes even more paramount.

Proprietary Trading Firms
Proprietary trading firms have become very attractive with their training programs and low-fee structures. If the idea of trading from home does not appeal to you, then working on a trading floor might. Under this system, the trader is provided with firm capital (or leveraged capital) to trade and the risk is partially managed by the firm. While personal discipline is still very much required, trading for a firm takes some of the weight off of a trader's shoulders.

Working for a firm may also require working in an office during an open market, although some firms allow traders to trade remotely (from home). The perks of working with a trading firm can include free training, being surrounded by other successful traders, constant trading ideas, greatly reduced fees and commissions, access to capital and performance monitoring.

Many proprietary trading firms will accept people who have shown initiative in their backgrounds and have some education in their prior field. This is because the firm can monitor a trader's risk, and those not showing promise can be released with very little overall loss to the firm.

Pay in a firm is based on performance, and is normally a percentage payout of your net profits after fees. Some licensing may be required, but depending on the structure of the company this is not always the case. Passing the Series 7 exam will mean that there are more firms with whom you are available to trade. Each firm operates a little differently, so find one what suits your needs, personality and circumstances. Some require you to use some of your own capital. If you run a search for a list of proprietary trading firms you will be able to see what is available to you.

Final Notes - The Next Step
After the method of trading that best fits you has been decided, the next step is crucial. If trading from home is the main interest, then you must decide what markets you will trade based on your capital and interests. You must then make a comprehensive trading plan, which is also a business plan (trading is now your business) and decide how you will operate as a trader. From there, explore different online brokers and compare what they offer. Seek out a mentor or someone to help you. Then, it is time to start trading.

Saturday, April 26, 2014

What's This Stock Really Worth?

Investing is all about predicting the future. When you buy a stock, you trade your hard-earned cash today for those shares in the hope that sometime in the future, you'll get back more cash than you handed over in the first place. Whether or not you do get more back than you paid will depend in large part on how much the company behind that stock earns during the time you own it.

Your returns will also depend on how the company did versus what the market expected of it during that time frame, as well as the market's expectations for the company's future at the time you sell. Those expectations matter so much because they form the foundation of a company's true worth -- what value investors call its intrinsic value.

Compensate for your broken crystal ball
Nobody really knows what a company will report as its earnings in future quarters, The best any of us can really do is estimate. Because you're estimating, the farther out in the future you go, the worse your estimates are. Also, because of inflation, risk, and the loss of use of your cash while it's out of your hands, a dollar potentially earned in the future is worth less than that same dollar held for certain in your hand today.

As a result, valuing a company takes more than just adding up the cash it's expected to earn in the future. It also takes reducing those future earnings back to a lower value today, to compensate for those factors.

That sort of valuation model is known as a "discount model," and it's one of the most common ways to estimate an intrinsic value for a company. It's not perfect -- no projection system is. The main advantage of the model is that it's based on risk-adjusted financial flows over time. The main disadvantage? Well, as with any forward-looking projection, it's based on assumptions, and those assumptions may be wrong.

What counts
To build a discounted earnings model, there are several key questions you need to answer. Three of the most important are:

What is the company earning now? How are those earnings expected to change over time? What return do you need to be adequately compensated for the risks you're taking?

That return level is an important consideration, as it provides the discount rate you use in your analysis. There are several different ways to arrive at a discount rate; my personal preference is to start at 12% and then move up from there based on risk factors.

Why 12%? Well, over the long haul, the total return on the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested has been in the neighborhood of 10%. Investing in a 500-stock-strong index is inherently less risky than investing in an individual company. After all, the odds of 500 of the largest companies around going bankrupt is a lot lower than the odds of any one of them failing.

Assuming that long-run historic trend holds true for the future, investing in an ETF like the S&P Depository Receipt that tracks the S&P 500 would provide 10% total returns. That extra 2 percentage points starts to compensate for the additional risk of buying an individual stock. If a company or an industry is particularly risky, I'll dial that discount rate up even higher.

For instance, when I went bank-stock shopping for the real-money Inflation-Protected Income Growth portfolio, I used a 15% discount rate. After all, banking crises aren't exactly rare, and nearly all the banks were affected by the recent financial crisis. Indeed, even some large banks, like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) and Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) haven't recovered well enough from that most recent crisis to begin restoring their dividends. Your money may be safe in a bank, but it's at risk in the bank's stock.

For Bank of America, a big part of the issue seems to be lack of consistent earnings. In spite of the recent economic stabilization, Bank of America reported a quarterly loss as recently as last September's quarter. It looks like the bank's ill-timed purchase of mortgage giant Countrywide during the financial crisis is still haunting it.

Citigroup, on the other hand, has been a laggard throughout the recovery, only recently passing the Federal Reserve's stress test, and still in need of some balance-sheet repair to be fully back up to snuff.

What's it worth today?
The bank that fit that real-money portfolio's criteria was Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) , which I estimated at the time as being worth about $226 billion. Solid earnings and stock market gains since then have propelled Wells Fargo's market cap to around $235 billion, above that initial estimate. Given that the market cap now exceeds my original fair value estimate, it makes sense to review it again to see whether that gain makes the company a candidate to sell.

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Since the most recent banking crisis is fading, the economy seems to be stabilizing, and Wells Fargo continues to perform solidly, I'm willing to dial back that discount rate to 14%. From an earnings perspective, over the past four quarters, Wells Fargo has earned $19.777 billion in income applicable to common shares. That leaves the question of its growth, which analysts estimate will be around 7.22% annualized over the next five years.

With that information in hand, valuing the company's stock becomes a spreadsheet exercise. For this example, we'll use a three-stage discounted earnings calculation. For the first five-year stage, we'll assume the company grows at that 7.22% analyst estimated rate. For the second five-year stage, we'll assume the company grows at a lower rate of 5%, and for the third (perpetual) stage, we'll assume it grows forever at around 3% -- about in line with long-run inflation.

Plugging those values into a discounted earnings spreadsheet produces these results:

Year

Nominal Earnings

Discounted Earnings

1

$21,204,899,400

$18,600,788,947

2

$22,735,893,137

$17,494,531,499

3

$24,377,424,621

$16,454,067,258

4

$26,137,474,679

$15,475,483,258

5

$28,024,600,351

$14,555,099,253

6

$29,425,830,368

$13,406,012,470

7

$30,897,121,887

$12,347,643,065

8

$32,441,977,981

$11,372,829,138

9

$34,064,076,880

$10,474,974,206

10

$35,767,280,724

$9,648,002,559

Perpetual

$334,911,810,415

$90,340,387,594

 

Intrinsic Value Estimate:

$230,169,819,248

Source: Author's calculations, based on inputs from Wells Fargo's 8-K earnings release filing from July 12, 2013, and Yahoo! Finance analyst estimates.

Or in other words, my current best estimate for Wells Fargo values the company at around $230 billion, slightly above my initial estimate, but just below its recent market capitalization of $235 billion.

So what?
Since the intrinsic value calculation is an estimate and it's really close to the company's market capitalization, I don't currently plan to sell Wells Fargo from the iPIG portfolio based on valuation. But if the market should decide to price Wells Fargo at a substantial premium to that estimate -- say at around $280 billion -- then I'd consider the sale. On the flip side, should the market put the company on sale -- say for closer to $200 billion -- I'd consider buying more. As it is, Wells Fargo looks like a hold.

Is there such a thing as a bank whose stock is worth owning?
Many investors are terrified about investing in big banking stocks after the crash, but the sector has one notable standout. In a sea of mismanaged and dangerous peers, it rises above the rest as "The Only Big Bank Built to Last." You can uncover the top pick that Warren Buffett loves in The Motley Fool's new report. It's free, so click here to access it now.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Change in the tea leaves for Coca-Cola?

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO ) reported first-quarter 2014 earnings last week, and shares rose more than 5% for the week, a demonstration of the whimsical magic of beating lowered expectations, as the company's revenue, net income, and earnings per share declined 4%, 8%, and 6%, respectively, versus the prior year. Let's review highlights of Coke's earnings report to seek out any change in the tea leaves as the company works to alter its recent fortunes.

A quarter of attractive cash flow

Despite lower sales than in the comparable prior-year quarter, Coke enjoyed strong cash flow in the first three months of 2014. The company generated $1.1 billion in cash from operations from $1.6 billion in net income. This compares favorably to the $480 million of operating cash flow generated from $1.8 billion in net income during the same period in 2013. CFO Gary Fayard cited efficient management of working capital as a primary driver of the increased cash flow. This makes sense, for if you look at last year's statement of cash flows for the period, you'll see, conversely, changes in working capital items created the greatest drag on operational cash flow. Fayard also noted that Coca-Cola's largest pension plan is now fully funded, which should also have a positive impact on cash for the rest of the year: Coke's contributions to its pension plans in 2012 and 2013 totaled $1.1 billion and $640 million, respectively.

This was Fayard's last earnings call, as he's set to retire this year and will be succeeded by Vice President, Finance and Controller Kathy Waller. Fayard has been a circumspect steward of Coke's resources over the past 14 years, exhibiting a healthy distrust of the overly aggressive share repurchases that many of his Fortune 500 peer CFOs have embraced as a means to increase earnings per share. Waller is also a Coke veteran, with more than 25 years at the company, and shareholders will hopefully see a similarly circumspect attitude toward capital allocation at the company under her w! atch.

China momentum from an unlikely source

Coke seems to be thriving in every category in China, from sparkling beverages to juices to bottled waters. For example, the company grew total volume 12% during the quarter. Part of this success is attributable to "lapping" a poor Q1 of 2013, in which volume grew only 1%. But as an analyst on Coke's earnings call pointed out, the last few sequential quarters in China have been good to Coke. This is a different experience from other consumer goods companies, from Procter & Gamble to Mondelez to Yum! Brands, which have found tough going in the world's most promising emerging market over the last year.

So, what's driving Coke's revenue in China? On its earnings call the company pointed to smaller packaging and lower price points, which enable greater "immediate consumption" sales. But we may be seeing a demand driver in China similar to one that has sustained the company's growth in Mexico for decades. In Mexico, fresh, clean water, especially in rural areas, is often in scarce supply. Coke's far-reaching distribution system has made its drinks more available in Mexico than potable water.

As odd as it may seem for a developing nation as prosperous as China, the same sort of fresh water proxy may be occurring, as widespread pollution, the price of rapid industrialization, is pushing forward sales of bottled waters and other drinks. According to Euromonitor, the market for bottled water in China will grow nearly 80% from 2012 levels, to reach $16 billion by 2017. As we've seen in Mexico, both soft drinks and water serve as replacements for safe drinking water. Just four days before Coke's earnings release, the Chinese city of Lanzhou, with a population of 3.6 million, experienced a run on bottled water when it came to light that the city's drinking water is contaminated with the carcinogen benzene.

Any light on revenue growth prospects in the near future?

President of Coca-Cola International Ahmet Bozer confirmed on the ear! nings cal! l that high-single-digit volume growth in China would be the norm going forward. This encouraging projection throws into relief Coke's challenges for long-term company-wide revenue expansion. CEO Muhtar Kent is confident that the company is still structured to produce long-term revenue growth in the 3%-4% range. Yet the perceived difficulty of getting to this number is a weight on the stock at present. That the company is having to convert $1 billion of productivity savings to marketing expense to reach a modest revenue goal can't be comforting to shareholders. In the company's earnings release, it noted that roughly $400 million of this spend will occur through the rest of this year.

Departing CFO Fayard probably isolated one of Coke's best chances for increasing long-term revenue in the following comment: "We evaluate opportunities to grow through bolt-on acquisitions, strategic partnerships, and value-added joint ventures when appropriate." Acquisitions such as the purchase of Honest Tea and the recent equity investment in Keurig Green Mountain should provide opportunities to offset sluggish growth in current categories, but these results will manifest themselves over the course of years, not overnight.

The other major opportunity, of course, lies in the ascendance of still, or nonsparkling, beverages. While sparkling sales declined worldwide by 1% during the quarter, still beverages (waters, juices, energy drinks, cold coffee, and the like) continued their recent trend of outperformance, gaining 8% in global volume. Ideally, applying the type of opportunism Fayard mentioned to the vibrant category of still beverages will provide the momentum boost Coke needs to ensure that its long-term fortunes remain intact. Yet so far in 2014, the tea leaves remain cloudy for Coca-Cola.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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Thursday, April 24, 2014

Weitz Funds' Analyst Corner - A Perspective On Liberty Media Corporation

By Drew Weitz

Liberty Media (LMCA) owns interests in companies across the media, entertainment and communications industries. The largest investments include publicly traded Sirius XM Holdings, Charter Communications and Live Nation Entertainment, as well as fully owned subsidiary The Atlanta National League Baseball Club (the Atlanta Braves). Liberty is led by its founder and Chairman John Malone and CEO Greg Maffei.

Constant Reinvention Long time shareholders will recognize Liberty and its chairman as having been fixtures of our portfolios for years. But one should not mistake this consistency for complacency, as few companies have successfully reinvented themselves more consistently than Liberty Media. Over the years, assets have been acquired, spun-off or merged with others, including Liberty Global, Discovery Communications and DIRECTV to name a few. In each case, the goal has been to maximize value for shareholders, not to simply grow management's empire.

More than "Mark to Market" Liberty Media is best thought of as an investment portfolio, with each individual investment and subsidiary contributing value to the whole. In instances where Liberty owns shares of a publicly traded entity (e.g. Live Nation Entertainment), a wealth of information is available to help investors form an opinion of the value of their holding – including a constantly updating market price. When evaluating Liberty Media, some choose to simply "mark" these assets at their current market value, and compare the result to Liberty's stock price. Others (like us) choose to look at the potential underlying value of these investments, as we would for our own direct investments, and combine them to form a business value estimate for Liberty Media as a whole. Therefore, any discussion of Liberty must include a look at its primary assets.

The "Big Two" Liberty's portfolio ranges from baseball teams to booksellers, but its value is dominated by two holdings: Sirius XM and Charter Communications. Liberty received 40% of the equity in Sirius XM in return for an emergency loan at the depths of the financial crises – a loan that was repaid in less than one year. Sirius not only survived the crisis, it has thrived thanks to improved new car sales and cost savings generated by the merger with former rival, XM Satellite Radio. Over this period, Liberty added to its ownership stake (now totaling 53%) and gained control of the company. Improved sales, lower costs and a healthy balance sheet have combined to generate a steady and growing stream of cash flow – and few management teams have proven themselves more adept at shareholder-friendly capital allocation than Liberty. Competition for entertainment and information services in the car is high, but we remain confident that Sirius is well positioned for future value per share growth. Charter Communications is a relatively recent investment, but marks John Malone's return to the cable industry he helped pioneer. Charter is poised to rebound from a prolonged period of poor performance due to a legacy of over-borrowing and under-investment. After seeking bankruptcy protection in 2009, the company has emerged with a stronger balance sheet and attracted one of the industry's top operators, Tom Rutledge, to the CEO role. Today, we believe Charter is on the right path, making the needed investments to have competitive products, particularly in high speed Internet service. Within the company's footprint, Charter mostly competes with legacy DSL providers or satellite TV providers who cannot offer data products directly. Charter's investments will allow them to press their broadband advantage and potentially reclaim lost video customers. Beyond operational improvements, Charter may also lower costs by pursing attractive acquisition opportunities to gain additional scale. Despite being recently outbid by Comcast for Time Warner Cable, we believe that success in this arena would be additive to our business value estimate.

Clarity through Complexity The Company recently announced its intention to create two new tracking stocks at Liberty Media: Liberty Broadband, principally representing its existing investment in Charter, and a tracking stock that retains the Liberty Media name for all the remaining investments, including Sirius XM. (As a reminder, a tracking stock is a publicly tradable security meant to "track" the economic results of a subset of a company's business without legal separation from the corporate parent.) A frequent criticism of all Liberty entities is the complexity of such corporate structures. As long-time Liberty watchers, however, we tend to applaud their creation of new tracking stocks, as the added complexity typically delivers greater clarity around previously under-appreciated opportunities. The creation of Liberty Broadband accomplishes this in three ways. First, it highlights the specific value of Liberty's stake in Charter. Second, it provides investors a more direct method to participate in Malone's return to domestic cable. Lastly, it provides Liberty the opportunity to raise additional equity, specifically from this self-selected shareholder base, to pursue new cable investment opportunities (potentially in conjunction with Charter).

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Building our Business Value As described above, our business value estimate for Liberty Media is derived using our valuation work for the constituent pieces. At quarter end's price ($131), we believe an investor that only considered the potential value of Liberty's public company investments would find its shares trading at a discount to business value. Factoring in our estimates for the more opaque pieces (e.g. the Atlanta Braves) we believe shares are trading at a meaningful discount to our estimated base case business value in the $170s. With this discount to business value and the proven leadership of John Malone and Greg Maffei, we view Liberty Media shares as an attractive investment.

Andrew S. Weitz joined Weitz in 2008. He graduated from Carleton College and previously spent four years with Ariel Investments.

Investors should consider carefully the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Funds before investing. The Funds' Prospectus or Summary Prospectus contains this and other information about the Funds and should be read carefully before investing. Portfolio composition is subject to change at any time and references to specific securities, industries, and sectors referenced in this letter are not recommendations to purchase or sell any particular security. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. See the Schedule of Investments in Securities included in the Funds' quarterly report for the percent of assets of each Fund invested in particular industries or sectors. As of March 31, 2014, Liberty Media represented 2.7% of Value Fund's net assets, 3.6% of Partners Value Fund's net assets, 4.2% of Partners III Opportunity Fund's net assets, 1.9% of Research Fund's net assets and 2.8% of Hickory Fund's net assets. Weitz Securities, Inc. is the distributor of the Weitz Funds.

Also check out: Wallace Weitz Undervalued Stocks Wallace Weitz Top Growth Companies Wallace Weitz High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Wallace Weitz keeps buying
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Tuesday, April 22, 2014

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation Swings to Q1 Profit (BK)

Financial services company The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) reported a profit for its first quarter, which came in above analysts’ estimates.

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BK’s Earnings in Brief

BNY Mellon reported Q1 earnings of $661 million, or 57 cents  per share, compared to a net loss of $266 million, or 23 cents per share, a year ago.  Total revenue was $3.647 billion, up from $3.629 billion last year. On an adjusted basis, revenue was $3.627 billion, compared to $3.613 billion in the same quarter last year. Analysts expected to see earnings of 53 cents per share and $3.73 billion in revenue.

CEO Commentary

Chairman and CEO of BK, Gerald L. Hassell, commented: "Investment Management and Investment Services fees increased 3 percent and we managed our expenses well, resulting in pretax earnings growth of 12 percent year over year. Our performance benefitted from strength in Clearing Services, the eighteenth consecutive quarter of positive long-term inflows in Investment Management and the growing contribution from our Global Collateral Services and electronic foreign exchange initiatives.”

BK’s Dividend

BK declared a 17 cent dividend on April 7. The dividend will be paid on May 7 to shareholders of record on April 25. The stock will go ex-dividend on April 23.

Stock Performance

Bank of New York Mellon shares were mostly flat during pre-market trading Tuesday. The stock is down 3.52% YTD.

BK Dividend Snapshot

As of market close on April 21, 2014

BK dividend yield annual payout payout ratio dividend growth

Click here to see the complete history of BK dividends.

The Most Important Trend for Traders to Track

5 Best Quality Stocks To Own Right Now

 With the market still down from its highs... and "gloom and doom" news in the headlines... it's important for traders and investors to step back and take the "long view."   When we say the "long view," we mean looking at the stock market from a multiyear viewpoint... not just a few weeks or a few months.   Taking this view will help you make more money over the coming months...    Back in November, the benchmark S&P 500 Index had fallen 4% from its highs. Bearish news was dominating the headlines. But as we showed you, in the "long view," stocks were locked in a long series of "higher highs and higher lows."   This simply means each push higher results in higher prices than the previous push (higher highs). It also means each correction stops short of the previous correction (higher lows).   This is the definition of an uptrend. It is classic bull market price action. About a week after our note, the market "made a stand," stopped falling, and began a 23% rally.   Anyone who kept the "long view" in mind was able to use the correction to establish positions in cheap, high-quality stocks. The rally that followed handed those traders big, short-term gains.    Today, once again, we're hearing "doom and gloom" from all sides. But many years of trading have taught us that minding the "long view" – the overall trend – is a key component of successful trading.   When sizing up the overall trend in stocks, we see that the S&P 500 could fall more and still stay in its uptrend...     Old market hands say it's reasonable – even healthy – for a bull market to "retrace" 50% of a big gain before heading higher. If the S&P 500 retraces 50% of the gain it saw from its bottom in November to its high last month, it would decline an additional 6.5% to reach the 1,511 area.   We'll keep an eye on that level... But until stocks fall that far, we'll consider the uptrend intact.    Understand, we don't have a bias or an agenda to defend. As we noted last week, some smart folks are preparing for a crisis-level selloff. And if the facts change, we'll change our minds. In our DailyWealth Trader service, we consider ourselves "mercenaries"...   We'll go to whichever side of the market is offering the most money for the least amount of risk.   While stocks could stay weak and correct in the short term, we're keeping the "long view" in mind. We know big, multiyear trends tend to last longer than most people believe is possible. We know public sentiment toward stocks isn't rosy, which is a positive for stocks.   So we're using this correction to find great opportunities to go long.   – Amber Lee Mason and Brian Hunt



Monday, April 21, 2014

Introducing the Sci-Fi Franchise That Beats "Star Wars" and "Star Trek"

Star Wars may be worth at least $4 billion to Walt Disney and Star Trek the subject of 12 mostly successful films and six television series for Viacom, but neither beats Doctor Who, the BBC adventure series about a wandering Time Lord that has thrilled audiences for five decades. The Guinness Book of World Records honored the show in 2009 as the most successful sci-fi series of all time.

Is that really fair? Taste is subjective, after all, and each series has seen more than its share of wins. For Fool contributor Tim Beyers, what makes Doctor Who so interesting is how prevalent "Whovians," as fans of the show are called, tend to be at pop culture events.

They came out in force at Denver Comic-Con, Tim says in the following video, overwhelming a conference room just for a chance to see Colin Baker and Daphne Ashbrook. In the 1980s, Baker succeeded Peter Davison as the sixth incarnation of The Doctor. Ashbrook appeared in a 1996 movie playing The Doctor's human traveling companion. That they both still attract so many fans speaks to the longevity of the franchise.

On a worldwide basis, more than 77 million in 48 countries watch The Doctor regularly, Reuters reports. Expect even more this November, when a 50th anniversary special airs. Neither the Starks and Lannisters of Game of Thrones nor the zombies of The Walking Dead have so large or fervent a fan base.

Why should this matter to you as an investor? Because passion can be a powerful profit driver. Look at AMC Networks (NASDAQ: AMCX  ) . Thanks to The Walking Dead, which debuted on the network in October 2010, revenue growth accelerated from 10.1% in 2011 to 13.9% last year, according to data supplied by S&P Capital IQ.

For Doctor Who, the difficulty for American investors is that there is no way to invest in the BBC directly. Yet there are alternatives: Amazon.com and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , principally.

Both companies sell single episodes and full seasons of The Doctor's adventures. Amazon, like Netflix, also streams prior seasons, while Apple says iTunes executes some 800,000 TV downloads daily. Parts 1 and 2 of the latest season rank in the top 10 of iTunes downloads in Science Fiction and Fantasy.

Investing in Apple means getting a cut of the profits from those downloads. Amazon offers a similar opportunity. Will you take it? Please watch the video for Tim's full take, and then leave a comment to let us know which shows you're downloading, and from which service.

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Sunday, April 20, 2014

Microsoft Stock Has a 29% Margin of Safety

The common premise goes like this: Since much of Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) business benefits from PC sales, which are declining, don't invest in Microsoft.

That view doesn't satisfy me. It doesn't take price into consideration. And even a company amid unfortunate circumstances can be a great stock when the price is right. So let's stop guessing. What is Microsoft really worth?

Microsoft's business
When you break down Microsoft's business, revenue comes from five main divisions: 

Source: SEC filings.

Though its entertainment and devices division combined with its online services account for a substantial sum of the company's revenue, online services currently runs at a loss, and entertainment and devices runs on a slim profit.

Operating profit, therefore, paints a much clearer picture of Microsoft's business:

Source: SEC filings.

Though the above chart is only the company's most recent quarter, the annual picture looks similar -- for fiscal 2012, entertainment and devices had a very small profit and online services had a loss, too.

Estimating growth
Now that we have identified Microsoft's most meaningful business segments (Windows, server and tools, and Microsoft business), we can take a look at their respective growth rates to decide on an estimate for Microsoft's future growth. Since Microsoft provides necessary adjustments for quarterly revenue in its quarterly filings, revenue will be the most useful indicator. 

Division

Percentage of Operating Profit

Q3 Revenue Growth

Windows

35%

0%

Sever and tools

20%

11%

Microsoft business

42%

5%

Source: SEC filings. Revenue growth rates are after adjustments, from the year-ago quarter.

Declining PC sales or not, Microsoft is growing, albeit slowly. Again, these growth rates are fairly close to Microsoft's fiscal 2012 year-over-year revenue growth rates. Analysts expect growth, too, with a consensus estimate for almost 9% growth per annum for the next five years.

But let's be conservative. Maybe the Microsoft bears are partially right. What chance does Microsoft have in a mobile environment with Apple and Google dominating it? In our discounted cash flow valuation I'll bet on a flat 3% growth rate (in line with the historical rate of inflation) for Microsoft's free cash flow, per annum.

Using a 10% discount rate, Microsoft shares have a value of approximately $48.50. In other words, at $34.60 Microsoft stock, trades at a 29% margin of safety.

So it's time to buy Microsoft stock?
Not necessarily. A discounted cash flow valuation should never replace high quality analysis and simple business savvy. But it's a great starting point. And it does a great job of taking emotions out of the game.

That said, if you have a very good understanding of Microsoft's business, and you are certain that it can grow free cash flow at 3% or greater per year, Microsoft stock might be worth considering. A 29% margin of safety is nothing to sneeze at.

It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Investors Want a Lot From H&R Block's Biggest Quarter

On Wednesday, H&R Block (NYSE: HRB  ) will release its latest quarterly results. With the tax-preparation giant doing most of its business between early February and mid-April, this quarter is always the most important one for the company, and investors already have high expectations for the company.

One thing that H&R Block always has going in its favor is the complexity of the tax code. With new tax increases having taken effect at the beginning of 2013, the company can expect even more confusion among taxpayers during next year's tax season, pointing to further growth potential ahead. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with H&R Block over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on H&R Block

Analyst EPS Estimate

$2.61

Change From Year-Ago EPS

28%

Revenue Estimate

$2.27 billion

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

13.3%

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

2

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Can H&R Block knock its earnings out of the park this quarter?
Analysts have gotten a bit more enthusiastic about H&R Block's earnings in recent months, raising their estimates for the April quarter by $0.03 per share and increase their views on fiscal 2014 by a penny per share. But the stock has already gotten a head start on the celebration, rising 19% since early March.

Much of those gains came right after H&R Block's earnings report three months ago, in which the company gave some positive guidance for the April quarter. Although the company reported a much wider-than-expected loss in its fiscal third quarter, CEO Bill Cobb projected tax-filing growth of 1% to 2% and said that H&R Block was winning the competitive battle. Although early tax filings were down because of IRS delays stemming from the late passage of the fiscal-cliff compromise, expected overall growth was good news for the company.

But then, H&R Block ran into trouble with its software. The IRS said that a limited number of software company products failed to provide for the correct treatment of the American Opportunity educational tax credit, forcing an estimated 660,000 taxpayers to have to wait an additional six weeks for their refunds, and H&R Block had been informing its customers about the problems. Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU  ) already has a commanding lead over H&R Block with Intuit's TurboTax software, so H&R Block's slip-up likely didn't add much to Intuit's dominance. But even Blucora's (NASDAQ: BCOR  ) TaxAct software might well benefit from the issue, forcing H&R Block to rely even more on its bricks-and-mortar stores in order to keep its sales up.

In the end, H&R Block wasn't able to deliver on its promise of tax-return growth, as the company announced toward the end of April that it had served 0.9% fewer clients through April 18 than it did the previous year. With its inability to gain market share from Intuit, Blucora, and other tax-preparation alternatives, it's unclear why investors have been bidding the shares up so aggressively.

In H&R Block's quarterly report, look beyond the headline revenue and profit numbers to figure out where the company is having the most success getting clients and which products are driving revenue the most. Despite its short-term setbacks, H&R Block really does have a lucrative opportunity next tax season to capture a whole new audience, and so a disappointment that spurred a share-price plunge might actually provide a nice buying opportunity for long-term investors.

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Click here to add H&R Block to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Baker Hughes Q1 EPS, Revenue Rise On Strong Overseas Sales

Shares of Baker Hughes (BHI) were higher Thursday, as it delivered a top- and bottom-line beat in its first quarter.

The oilfield services company said it earned $328 million, or 74 cents a share, up from 60 cents a share in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, earnings were 84 cents a share, up from 65 cents, six cents ahead of the 78 cents analysts were expected.

Revenue rose 9.6% to $5.73 billion, squeaking past the consensus $5.71 billion.

Revenue in the North American region, the biggest top-line contributor, climbed 6.6% in the quarter, while overseas sales saw double-digit jumps: The Middle East and Asia-Pacific region saw a 24% increase in revenues, followed by a 17% gain in Europe, Russia, and Africa. Latin America was one blemish on the report, as sales slid 10%.

On the conference call, management said that it expects strong commodity prices to support spending by its customers. The company noted that rig counts in Saudi Arabia have reached a new high, and that they also see well counts rising in the U.S. However, it also adjusted its international rig count growth estimate to 9% for the full year, down from a previous 10%.

Not many analyst notes have trickled in yet, but FBR Capital Markets' Thomas Curran and Juan Avendano reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock, writing that the quarter demonstrates why the stock has been their top pick in the group.

More from the note:

FLEXPump and FracPoint making headway internationally, too. Centrilift, BHI’s artificial lift business, won (1) its largest contract ever in the Middle East, with a workscope covering the supply, maintenance, and surveillance of 400 ESP systems over a 5-year term; and (2) “a significant” FLEXPump order in Russia. BHI also deployed the FracPoint multistage fracturing system in North Africa for the first time. Finally, BHI inked a multi-year contract in the Middle East for the provision of drill bits, completions systems, and wireline services.

Bought back another $200M of stock. BHI repurchased 3.4 million shares at an average price of $58.82. Thus, since expanding its buyback authorization in October 2013 by 67% or $800M to $2B, BHI has spent $550M on the repurchase of 9.7M shares at an average price of $56.70. It now has $1.45B remaining under the authorization.

Peers like National OIlwell Varco (NOV) and Newpark Resources (NR) were also rising on Thursday.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

WrestleMania 30 Reaches Record 1 Million Households

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NEW YORK (TheStreet) - More than 1 million households watched World Wrestling Entertainment's (WWE) WrestleMania 30 marking it the first time that the wrestling fan-favorite event "eclipsed" that number domestically, WWE said on Tuesday.

As a result, WWE feels "confident" it will reach its goal of 1 million subscribers on its February-launched WWE Network streaming network by the end of 2014. WWE Network currently has more than 667,000 subscribers in the U.S. WWE also had nearly 400,000 domestic pay-per-view buying homes for WrestleMania 30.

WWE launched the WWE Network in late February. The over-the-top (OTT) service purely for wrestling fans is akin to Netflix (NFLX). It costs $9.99 a month and includes access to all of the live and scheduled programming, including all 12 live pay-per-view events, like WrestleMania, as well a video-on-demand library. Viewers can watch the WWE Network via Apple (AAPL) TV, Roku streaming devices, Sony PlayStation 3, Sony PlayStation 4 and Xbox 360. WWE Network is also available on the WWE app, which is available on iOS devices and Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire devices and Google (GOOG) Android devices, as well as on desktops and laptops via WWE.com.

WWE Network successfully streamed six hours of live coverage of WrestleMania 30 on Sunday, April 6. Additionally, more than 7.1 million hours of video content was viewed on WWE Network during WrestleMania Week from Tuesday, April 1 through Tuesday, April 8, the entertainment company said. The streaming service is expected to be rolled out in Canada, the U.K., Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong and the Nordics in late 2014/early 2015, the company said. Stamford, CT.-based WWE will report its first-quarter earnings results on May 1. --Written by Laurie Kulikowski in New York. Follow @LKulikowski

Stock quotes in this article: WWE 

Monday, April 14, 2014

Hot Growth Companies To Own For 2014

Hot Growth Companies To Own For 2014: Eastern Insurance Holdings Inc.(EIHI)

Eastern Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides workers compensation insurance and reinsurance products in the United States. The company?s Workers Compensation Insurance segment provides traditional workers compensation insurance coverage products, including guaranteed cost policies, policyholder dividend policies, retrospectively-rated policies, deductible policies, and alternative market products to employers. This segment distributes its workers? compensation products and services through its independent insurance agents primarily in Pennsylvania, Delaware, North Carolina, Maryland, Indiana, and Virginia. Its Segregated Portfolio Cell Reinsurance segment offers alternative market workers compensation solutions comprising program design, fronting, claims administration, risk management, segregated portfolio cell rental, asset management, and segregated portfolio management services to individual companies, groups, and associations. Eastern Insurance Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lauren Pollock]

    ProAssurance Corp.(PRA) agreed to acquire Eastern Insurance Holdings Inc.(EIHI) for about $205 million, expanding the insurance company’s casualty insurance offerings. Eastern Insurance is a domestic casualty insurance group specializing in workers’ compensation products and services, among other things. ProAssurance plans to pay $24.50 in cash for each outstanding Eastern share, a 16% premium over Monday’s closing price.

  • source from Top Stocks Blog:http://www.topstocksblog.com/hot-growth-companies-to-own-for-2014-2.html

Friday, April 11, 2014

Airlines, airports improve tech for passengers

What if you can hop on board a flight after scanning your own boarding pass? How about tagging and checking your own bag? Or finding the nearest spot for an airport manicure by tapping a screen?

It may sound like a flying experience far, far in the future. But it's happening right now.

Airlines and airports are innovating on the ground and in the air, rolling out new gadgets, kiosks and systems designed to put more power in the hands of business and leisure fliers, and enhance the overall flying experience.

"Number one is to put control and convenience in the hands of our customers,'' says Jeff Foland, United's executive vice president of marketing, technology and strategy, adding that the new tools also enable employees to spend more time with customers who need help tackling problems.

On April 30, United will open its new Terminal B at Boston Logan International Airport, and officials say that it will be a state-of-the-art showcase of the latest technology.

"It's a very important station to us ... a very important business market, so we decided to invest there and put the best of the best technology innovation all in one place,'' says Foland of the $160 million terminal. "It's the most advanced station we'll have in the system at this point in time, and we'll continue to advance other stations as we go forward.''

Inside the lobby of Terminal B, fliers will find 24 kiosks where they can weigh and tag their own luggage without the assistance of an agent. Then they can drop the bags off at one of six luggage acceptance points. Agents will be at stations throughout the lobby to provide help when needed.

There will also be do-it-yourself boarding, with eight of 10 gates outfitted with units that allow passengers to scan their boarding passes and then proceed onto the plane, speeding up the process of getting everyone to their seats. And the new Boston terminal will have self-service kiosks where passengers can resolve issues, such as booking new flights if theirs a! re canceled.

Meanwhile, in October, Delta will start providing its 20,000 flight attendants with a new mobile device that will eventually include everything from the name and age of minors who are traveling alone to notes about a passenger who didn't get his or her requested upgrade and might need a little extra attention.

"The airlines, and Delta, need to upgrade our technology ... because it's expected,'' says Joanne Smith, Delta's senior vice president for in-flight service. "Our challenge then is how do you make it not just expected, but also a surprise and be noted as an airline that is really forward thinking in making that travel experience more highly differentiated."

Delta will announce Monday that all of its flight attendants will have handheld Nokia Lumia 1520 devices by the end of this year. The airline previously said that its pilots would be getting Microsoft Surface 2 tablets this year to take the place of the flight bags that they've traditionally used to tote heavy manuals.

The new Nokias, which are a cross between a phone and a tablet, will initially be an on-board manual for flight attendants, a transactional tool for the sale of on-board meals, and a tip sheet on some passengers, such as the elite frequent flier in seat 4A who doesn't want to be awakened for a meal.

But Smith says the possibilities for the device are seemingly endless. Within a year of their distribution, the tablets will also contain the information flight attendants routinely receive about young travelers flying solo along with passenger connections. And if a passenger's previous flight was canceled, "that information can be pushed to flight attendants so they make an extra effort to turn that experience around for the customer,'' she says.

Eventually, the devices will even be used to hasten maintenance. The flight crew can "snap a picture of a (broken) tray table and ... the mechanics can meet the plane at the other end and fix it,'' Smith says. "We have so many ideas for it. It! 's priori! tizing them to have the biggest customer impact that we can, the fastest we can.''

Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport has also focused on using technological innovations to improve the passenger experience.

"The key to every one of our customers is making them more mobile, more flexible,'' says William Flowers, the airport's vice president for information technology services. "We're talking about the airport of the future.''

DFW is rolling out 70- and 40-inch digital touch-screens that allow passengers to find restaurants, restrooms and other services within a five-minute walk in any given terminal. The entire airport will have the "digital way finders'' by 2018.

Automated passport control at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport.(Photo: DFW International Airport)

The airport also has 30 automated passport-control kiosks where passengers scan their passports, then answer Customs questions by using the touch screen. It will install 24 additional kiosks this summer, allowing additional categories of travelers to have a quicker pass through.

Staffers at DFW airport are also equipped with iPads that allow them to do inspections of their concessionaires and to report any issues, such as an overflowing trash can, complete with photographs, to the venue owners, who can address the problems.

Eventually, the airport also hopes to enable passengers to order food and gifts right from their seats in the terminal.

That's what happens when you push the envelope, Flowers says — you have to keep pushing.

"If you keep delivering that type of technology, (customers) keep on expecting it,'' Flowers says. "That's why we're constantly looking."

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Top Cheap Companies To Invest In 2015

J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP  ) stock skyrocketed last week after news leaked that�Soros Fund Management had taken a big stake in the struggling retailer. And yes, with Penney selling today for close to book value, and a price-to-sales ratio less than half what rivals Kohl's (NYSE: KSS  ) and Macy's (NYSE: M  ) charge, you can see what might have attracted George Soros' attention.

Problem is, Penney is cheap for a reason. Several reasons, actually. Listen in, as Fool contributor Rich Smith lays them out for you...

The retail space is in the midst of the biggest paradigm shift since mail order took off at the turn of last century. Only those most forward-looking and capable companies will survive, and they'll handsomely reward those investors who understand the landscape. You can read about the 3 Companies Ready to Rule Retail in The Motley Fool's special report. Uncovering these top picks is free today; just click here to read more.

Top Cheap Companies To Invest In 2015: Merck & Company Inc.(MRK)

Merck & Co., Inc. provides various health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, animal health, and consumer care products. The company?s Pharmaceutical segment provides human health pharmaceutical products, such as therapeutic and preventive agents for the treatment of human disorders in the areas of bone, respiratory, immunology, dermatology, cardiovascular, diabetes and obesity, infectious diseases, neurosciences and ophthalmology, oncology, vaccines, and women's health and endocrine. This segment also offers human health vaccines, such as preventive pediatric, adolescent, and adult vaccines. Its Animal Health segment discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets animal health products. This segment offers antibiotics, anti-inflammatory products, vaccines, products for the treatment of fertility disorders, and parasiticides for cattle, swine, horses, poultry, dogs, cats, salmons, and fish. The Consumer Care segment develops, manufac tures, and markets over-the-counter, foot care, and sun care products. Its over-the-counter product line includes non-drowsy antihistamines; treatment for occasional constipation; decongestant-free cold/flu medicine for people with high blood pressure; nasal decongestant spray; and treatment for frequent heartburn. This segment?s foot care products comprise topical antifungal, and foot and sneaker odor/wetness products; and sun care products include sun care lotions, sprays and dry oils; and sunburn relief products. The company serves drug wholesalers and retailers, hospitals, government agencies, physicians, physician distributors, veterinarians, animal producers, and managed health care providers, as well as food chain and mass merchandiser outlets in the United States and Canada. Merck & Co., Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Whitehouse Station, New Jersey.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Rising Treasury yields haven’t hit stocks with big dividends as hard as the overall market today. While the Dow Jones Industrials have fallen� 1.2%, Verizon (VZ), which has a dividend yield of 4.2%, has dropped 0.3% to $48.75 today, while Pfizer (PFE), which has dividend yield of 3,2%, has fallen 0.1% to $29.01. Merck (MRK), which has a 3.5% dividend yield, is off� 0.8% at $48.20.

Top Cheap Companies To Invest In 2015: Lattice Semiconductor Corporation(LSCC)

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets programmable logic products and related software. The company offers field programmable gate array (FPGA) products, including LatticeECP family for deployment in wireless infrastructure and wireline access equipment, as well as in video and imaging applications; and LatticeXP for the security, surveillance, and display markets. It also provides programmable logic device (PLD) products comprising various versions of ispMACH4000 in-system programmable complex programmable logic device family; MachXO family that is designed for a range of low density applications; platform manager, power manager, and ispClock programmable mixed signal devices; and software development tools and intellectual property cores. The company sells its products directly to end customers through a network of independent manufacturers? representatives and indirectly through a network of independent sell-in and sell-through distributors. It primarily serves original equipment manufacturers in the communications, computing, consumer, industrial, military, automotive, and medical end markets. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Hillsboro, Oregon.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lee Jackson]

    Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: LSCC) is a top chip stock to buy at Jefferies. The company announced last month three new complete reference designs that will make it easier for electronic OEMs to deliver media-rich experiences to their end users by taking advantage of low-cost, industry-standard MIPI (Mobile Industry Processor Interface) camera, application processor and display technologies. The Jefferies price objective for the stock is $6.50, and the consensus is also at $6.50. Lattice closed yesterday at $4.63.

Best Value Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Ur Energy Inc(URG)

Ur-Energy Inc., an exploration stage junior mining company, engages in the identification, acquisition, evaluation, exploration, and development of uranium mineral properties. The company has 13 projects located in Wyoming and Nebraska, the United States; and 3 exploration projects located in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. Its landholdings cover approximately 90,000 acres in the United States and approximately 140,000 acres in Canada. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Littleton, Colorado.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By The Energy Report]

    DS: Two of our top picks are Cameco Corp. (CCJ) and Ur-Energy Inc. (URG). For Cameco, we've got a $25/share target and an outperform rating. This company is the industry's go-to, the blue chip uranium company. It's organically growing very low-cost operations, which are for the most part in very safe jurisdictions. It has a lower-risk approach to contracts, with a targeted pricing mix of about 40% fixed-pricing and 60% market-related pricing in the contract book. The company's got a solid balance sheet. We think it's going to end Q3/13 with about $800M in working capital and another $2 billion [$2B] in undrawn lines of credit. It's also diversified across the nuclear fuel chain, with exposure not only to its core uranium mining business but also with nuclear fuel services, like conversion and fuel fabrication. It's got a stake in the Bruce nuclear power plant as well as a newly bolted-on uranium trading business, so it's quite diversified. On top of that, Cameco pays a 2% dividend. We think it offers a very attractive risk/reward proposition at these levels.

  • [By The Energy Report]

    JH: There are several companies that are in production that we follow in the U.S., such as Cameco Corp. (CCJ). Cameco produces at the Smith Ranch-Highland in the Powder River Basin. There's Uranium One, also in the Powder River Basin. There's Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC). A few near-term producers are rapidly coming online. Ur-Energy Inc. (URG) is one company we like in Wyoming.

  • [By James E. Brumley]

    Well, I'll give myself an A for effort, but a C- for timing. But, I can bump that C- up to a B+ if my intuition is right as we head into the last few days of 2013 and the first few of 2014. What I'm talking about is a bullish commentary I penned back on November 26th regarding Uranerz Energy Corp. (NYSEMKT:URZ), Uranium Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ:URRE), and Ur-Energy Inc. (NYSEMKT:URG). All three stocks were perking up, and more than that, the buzz surrounding URG, URRE, and URZ was getting louder. More often than not, when the fervor and bullish action and chatter reaches the levels they had reached a month ago, an explosion is right around the corner.

  • [By Bryan Murphy]

    If you listened to my bullish calls from December 27th and/or February 24th about Uranerz Energy Corp. (NYSEMKT:URZ), Uranium Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ:URRE), and Ur-Energy Inc. (NYSEMKT:URG), then congratulations - you're now up as much as 50%, depending on when you stepped into a trade, and which stock you chose. Now get out. See, as well as URZ and URG have done and are doing (URRE not so much), it looks like the short-term rally I first spotted a little more than a couple of months ago has fully run its course, and now these names are setting up a pullback.

Top Cheap Companies To Invest In 2015: Express-1 Expedited Solutions Inc.(XPO)

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides third-party logistics services using a network of relationships with ground, sea, and air carriers in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates in three segments: Express-1, Concert Group Logistics, and Bounce Logistics. The Express-1 segment offers ground expedited surface transportation services for freight. It operates a fleet ranging from cargo vans to semi tractor trailer units. The Concert Group Logistics segment provides domestic and international freight forwarding services through a network of independently owned stations. Its domestic freight forwarding services include air charter, expedites, and time sensitive services, as well as cost sensitive services comprising deferred delivery, less than truckload, and full truck load services; and international freight forwarding services consist of on-board courier and air charters, time sensitive services, less-than-container and full-container-loads, and vessel charters. This segm ent also offers documentation on international shipments, customs clearance and banking, trade show shipment management, time definite and customized product distributions, reverse logistics and on site asset recovery projects, installation coordination, freight optimization, and diversity compliance support services. The Bounce Logistics segment provides premium freight brokerage services for truckload shipments. The company serves approximately 4,000 retail, commercial, manufacturing, and industrial customers through 6 U.S. operations centers and 22 agent locations. It offers its services to the automotive manufacturing, automotive components and supplies, commercial printing, durable goods manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, food and consumer products, and high tech sectors. The company was formerly known as Express-1 Expedited Solutions, Inc. and changed its name to XPO Logistics, Inc. in September 2011. XPO Logistics, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is based in Buchanan, Michi gan.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jake L'Ecuyer]

    XPO Logistics (NYSE: XPO) shot up 7.06 percent to $30.01 after the company announced its plans to acquire Pacer International (NASDAQ: PACR) in a deal valued at $335 million.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    What: Shares of XPO Logistics (NYSE: XPO  ) jumped 13% today after announcing an acquisition.

    So what: The company will pay $365 million for logistics provider 3PD, consisting of $357 million in cash an $8 million in XPO restricted stock. Is will use its own cash and borrow $195 million from Credit Suisse Group for the remainder of the purchase. �

Top Cheap Companies To Invest In 2015: MEDIWARE Information Systems Inc.(MEDW)

Mediware Information Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, and marketing of software solutions targeting specific processes within healthcare institutions. The company offers software systems consisting of company's proprietary application software, and third-party licensed software and hardware. It licenses, implements, and supports clinical and performance management, blood donor, and blood and biologic management products in the United States; and medication management solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and South Africa. The company?s blood and biologics management solutions include HCLL Transfusion and HCLL Donor, which address blood donor recruitment, blood processing, and transfusion activities for hospitals and medical centers; BloodSafe suite of hardware and software that enable healthcare facilities to store, monitor, distribute, and track blood products; LifeTrak software for blood centers; a nd BiologiCare, a bone, tissue, and cellular product tracking software. Its medication management products comprise WORx, a pharmacy information system to manage inpatient and outpatient pharmacy operations; MediCOE, a physician order entry module; MediMAR, a nurse point-of-care administration and bedside documentation module; MediREC, which assists in achieving compliance with a Joint Commission mandate; and pharmacy management and electronic prescribing systems. The company?s performance management products include InSight software that tracks performance metrics to assist healthcare managers to manage performance. It also provides software installation and maintenance services, as well as billing and collection services to home infusion and home/durable medical equipment markets. The company markets its products primarily through its direct sales force. Mediware Information Systems, Inc. was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Lenexa, Kansas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By CRWE]

    Mediware Information Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq:MEDW) plans to acquire the assets of Indianapolis-based Strategic Healthcare Group LLC (SHG), a leading provider of blood management consulting, education and informatics solutions.

Top Cheap Companies To Invest In 2015: Compass Minerals Intl Inc(CMP)

Compass Minerals International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, produces and markets inorganic mineral products primarily in North America and the United Kingdom. The company operates in two segments, Salt and Specialty Fertilizer. The Salt segment produces salt and magnesium chloride for use in road deicing and dust control, food processing, water softeners, pool salt, and agricultural and industrial applications. This segment also purchases potassium chloride and sells as a finished product. The Specialty Fertilizer segment produces and markets sulphate of potash crop nutrients and industrial grade sulfate of potash for use in the production of specialty fertilizers for vegetables, fruits, potatoes, nuts, tobacco, and turf grass. The company also produces and markets consumer deicing and water conditioning products, ingredients used in consumer and commercial food preparation, and other mineral-based products for consumer, agricultural, and industrial applications. In ad dition, Compass Minerals provides records management services to businesses located in the U.K. The company operates rock salt mines in Goderich, Ontario, Canada; and Winsford, Chesire, the United Kingdom. It primarily serves producers of intermediate chemical products used in the production of vinyls and other chemicals, and pulp and paper, as well as water treatment and other industrial uses. The company markets its products through direct sales personnel, contract personnel, and a network of brokers or manufacturers? representatives. Compass Minerals International, Inc., formerly known as Salt Holdings Corporation, was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Overland Park, Kansas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Alex Planes]

    PotashCorp's difficulty sustaining its pricing power is underscored by recent reports from sulfate of potash (SOP) producer Compass Minerals (NYSE: CMP  ) , which charged a hefty premium of almost $300 per ton against Potash Corp's prices for muriate of potash. Efforts to move away from SOP sales seem to be the right choice -- PotashCorp peer Intrepid Potash's�SOP sales fell by 37%, while the average price received has slumped nearly 14% in the last quarter. Even ore miner BHP Billiton�has recently jumped into the fertilizer industry with a $2.6 billion build-out of a potash mine in Canada, which is all but certain to produce further downward pressure on potash prices.

  • [By Brendan Mathews]

    Compass Minerals (NYSE: CMP  ) is a sleepy producer of a boring product: rock salt. But it has a strong competitive advantage. It owns the world's largest rock salt mine, which luckily is conveniently located near the major deicing markets of the Great Lakes region. This combination of a great mining resource and ideal location provide the company with a wide, crocodile-filled competitive moat.

  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    Compass Minerals (CMP) is a producer of minerals, including salt, sulfate of potash specialty fertilizer and magnesium chloride. This stock closed up 3.4% at $75.60 in Wednesday's trading session.

    Wednesday's Volume: 913,000

    Three-Month Average Volume: 212,481

    Volume % Change: 315%

    From a technical perspective, CMP gapped higher here off its recent low of $64.24 with heavy upside volume. This stock recently gapped down sharply from around $90 to $64.24 with heavy downside volume. That move pushed shares of CMP into extremely oversold territory, since the stock's current relative strength index reading is 25.78. Oversold can always get more oversold, but it's also an area where a stock can experience a powerful bounce higher from. Shares of CMP are now starting to move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if CMP manages to take out its gap down day high of $78.20 and then once it clears its 200-day moving average at $79.14 with high volume.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CMP as long as it's trending above Wednesday's low of $73.07 or $72.50 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 212,481 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CMP will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone that started near $90.

Top Cheap Companies To Invest In 2015: Progress Software Corporation(PRGS)

Progress Software Corporation operates as an enterprise software company worldwide. Its products include Progress OpenEdge platform, which offers development tools, application servers, application management tools, and an embedded database; Progress Orbix to address enterprise integration problems with standards-based solutions; and Progress ObjectStore, an object data management system to store data faster than relational database management system or file-based storage system. The company?s products also comprise Progress Responsiveness Process Management suite for business users; Progress Control Tower, an interactive business control panel; Progress Sonic, which comprises an enterprise messaging system and the enterprise service buses; Progress Actional that provides operational and business visibility, root cause analysis, and policy-based security and control of services; Progress Apama, which offers tools for creating, testing, and deploying strategies for applicat ions, including algorithmic trading, market aggregation, smart order routing, market surveillance and monitoring, and risk management; Progress Savvion BusinessManager, a business process management software; and Fuse products that provide customers with access to professional open source integration and messaging software. In addition, it offers Progress DataDirect Connect products, which provide data connectivity components; Progress DataDirect Shadow to provide foundation architecture for standards-based mainframe integration; and Progress Data Services product set that offers data integration for distributed applications. Further, the company provides maintenance, consulting, training, and customer support services. Progress Software Corporation sells its products to independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers, and system integrators through direct sales force and independent distributors. The company was founded in 1981 and is based in Bedford, Massac husetts.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Kell and Lauren Pollock var popups = dojo.query(".socialByline .popC"); ]

    Progress Software Corp.'s(PRGS) fiscal first-quarter profit fell 64% as the business-software provider’s revenue slipped due to the timing of certain deal closures.

  • [By John Kell and Lauren Pollock var popups = dojo.query(".socialByline .popC"); ]

    Progress Software Corp.(PRGS) trimmed its expectations for the fiscal first quarter, as the business-software provider said results were hurt by lower license sales. Shares dropped 12% to $22.27 premarket.

  • [By Jake L'Ecuyer]

    Progress Software (NASDAQ: PRGS) shares tumbled 11.15 percent to $22.82 after the company issued a weak Q1 forecast.

    FireEye (NASDAQ: FEYE) was also down, falling 9.35 percent to $81.20 after the company's secondary offering lead to fear on the street.

Top Cheap Companies To Invest In 2015: Wendy's/Arby's Group Inc.(WEN)

The Wendy's Company operates as a quick-service hamburger company in the United States. The company, through its subsidiary, Wendy's International, Inc., operates as a franchisor of the Wendy's restaurant system. As of December 26, 2011, the Wendy's system comprised approximately 6,500 franchise and company restaurants in the United States and the United States territories, as well as in 26 other countries worldwide. The company was formerly known as Wendy's/Arby's Group, Inc. and changed its name to The Wendy's Company in July 2011. The Wendy's Company was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ohio.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By James O'Toole]

    In Congress, a group of 53 lawmakers sent letters Wednesday expressing support for higher wages to McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500), Wendy's (WEN), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Burger King (BKW) and Yum! Brands (YUM, Fortune 500), which operates KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell.

  • [By Sean Williams]

    The last fast-food chains standing
    If Jack in the Box (NASDAQ: JACK  ) and Wendy's (NASDAQ: WEN  ) can manage to go a few weeks without sticking their foot in the their mouth, they both have a shot at picking up market share based on these PR gaffes from McDonald's and Burger King.

  • [By Tamara Rutter]

    Breakfast is big business for fast-food chains. However, as Wendy's (NASDAQ: WEN  ) recently emphasized, it's a tough business as well. It raised the white flag recently, saying it would reduce the number of locations offering breakfast to between 300 and 400, down from about 850, according to Bloomberg.

  • [By Jeff Reeves]

    Burger chain Wendy�� (WEN) has soared almost 60% so far in 2012, but remains under $10 a share and is still a decent buy for investors looking at low-priced options right now.

Is a Revenue Miss Coming for Regal Beloit?

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Regal Beloit (NYSE: RBC  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can, at times, suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Regal Beloit do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Regal Beloit sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Regal Beloit's latest average DSO stands at 55.9 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 59.6 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Regal Beloit look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

Best India Stocks To Buy Right Now

The numbers don't paint a clear picture. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Regal Beloit's year-over-year revenue shrank 3.7%, and its AR grew 0.1%. That looks OK. End-of-quarter DSO increased 3.9% over the prior-year quarter. It was up 5.0% versus the prior quarter. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

If you're interested in companies like Regal Beloit, you might want to check out the jaw-dropping technology that's about to put 100 million Chinese factory workers out on the street – and the 3 companies that control it. We'll tell you all about them in "The Future is Made in America." Click here for instant access to this free report.

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